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Together, the indicators released Thursday point to an economy running fairly hot, a trend that will put upward pressure on mortgage rates and reduce the chances of a Fed rate cut anytime soon. Access selected forecasts, reports and scenario tools and experience first-hand how these insights help you plan confidently, prioritise markets and navigate emerging risks. From breaking macro trends to deep-dive market outlooks, have critical insights delivered straight to your inbox.

Decreasing Inflation And Fed Rate Cuts Could Lead To Soft Landing

They can help you make sense of economic and market developments and provide personalized recommendations to take advantage of the current environment. Overall, 2026 should be a constructive year for asset prices and economic conditions. However, investors should expect fits and starts during the year that will likely challenge their conviction and test their patience. Overall, we believe macroeconomic conditions have an opportunity to build on an already solid foundation in 2026. And while challenges persist and surprises are likely to emerge, the year ahead offers opportunities for investors who stay focused and disciplined.

These expenditures are a key indicator of government fiscal policy and economic activity. Measures total employment across all non-farm sectors in the United States. Serves as a critical indicator of overall economic health and labor market performance. The Advance Real Retail and Food Services Sales trend measures the monthly change in inflation-adjusted retail sales across the United States. This indicator provides critical insights into consumer spending patterns and overall economic health. Our April 2026 U.S. economic outlook centers on an economy facing a renewed energy shock at a time when inflation has not yet fully returned to target and growth momentum is cooling.

For additional insights, see our weekly economic highlights and Chief Economist Beth Ann Bovino’s latest economic commentary. A survey from Bank of America showed that more than one-third of Gen Z experienced financial hardships in 2023. Medicare is expanding to encompass a larger portion of the federal budget. In order to live comfortably throughout retirement, the Federal Reserve says the average person needs a total of $967,000 in savings.

Insights

Freelancing and self-employment continue to grow across the U.S. labor market. In 2025, more than 70 million Americans are estimated to be part of the gig economy, representing approximately 36 percent of the total workforce. What was once considered a side hustle is now a long-term career path for workers across a range of industries. Low layoff rates may reflect companies’ reluctance to lose staff or indicate a challenging hiring environment. Hiring numbers and job openings reflect labor demand, but they may be lower even in a solid economic environment if companies retain staff and take a more cautious approach to adding overhead. A high quit rate reflects worker confidence that other jobs are readily available.

The full spectrum of credit markets—secured, unsecured, structured and securitized across both public and private realms—now play a role in financing AI-related infrastructure. This dynamic was on display in 2025, when Morgan Stanley advised Meta on the $27 billion structured JV for the U.S. The EXCRESNS series tracks monthly financial data representing billions of dollars in economic transactions or balances.

• Morgan Stanley’s Investment Banking team notes that AI is increasingly driving M&A as firms seek expertise and client base/market penetration.
• The creator economy has blossomed into a $250-billion industry and it’s still growing.
• One way in which generative AI will impact the economy is through the labor market.

Investing in crypto is both volatile and speculative, suitable only for those able to bear the risk of complete loss and experience sharp drawdowns. Cash balances in DriveWealth brokerage accounts are held at FDIC-insured Program Banks and protected up to $1 million per depositor through DriveWealth’s multi-bank sweep program. The share of U.S. workers classified as self-employed has shifted only slightly over the last 30 years (see latest available data below). Freelance income varies widely depending on the type of work, level of expertise, and client demand. We’ll also look at how tools like the Solo 401k can help self-employed workers build savings, even when income is unpredictable. Register today and secure your Expo+Education Pass to attend these and other valuable IBS Education sessions.

Explore the latest research on the home and community features buyers want most in this session led by NAHB AVP of Survey Research Rose Quint and architect and industry thought-leader Donald Ruthroff. Discover what trends are shaping new home design, including how preferences shift by price-point. See these trends in action, illustrated through award-winning designs from recent Best in American Living Awards™ (BALA) winners. This IBS Super Session is hosted by NAHB Chief Economist Dr. Robert Dietz, as well as Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale and Zonda Chief Economist Ali Wolf. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act included several provisions that will impact charitable giving in 2026. With the expanded charitable deduction for non-itemizers, the 90% of Americans that do not itemize may be encouraged by the charitable giving tax incentive.

Just as in the last five years, organizations will face market volatility, economic uncertainty and policy complexity. As in recent years, nonprofits will continue to walk the line between stewarding current donors and welcoming the next generation. While baby boomers maintain their status as the largest philanthropic generation, millennials and Gen Z are closing the gap. Regardless of generation, donors are seeking transparency during a time in which trust for public institutions, including nonprofits, wanes.

Exact statistics for each year, including annual percentage point changes, can be found in the download file located below the figure. The traditional https://theenterpriseworld.com/social-media-growth-strategy/ formula for launching new beverages — leveraging brand recognition, conducting taste tests and executing large-scale advertising campaigns — is being challenged. New categories, particularly in the alcoholic and nonalcoholic segments, are seeing success through trend-driven marketing strategies. Social media influencers play a crucial role in this shift; for example, in recent memory, several viral videos have impacted both short-term and long-term success for specific beverage brands. Social and macro-influencing by prominent individuals isn’t a new trend, but it is proving to be very successful in building and retaining a loyal consumer base. This evolution is prompting beverage companies to rethink their product offerings and marketing strategies, creating opportunities for new entrants to disrupt traditional distribution models.